Swine flu: The next SARS?

The Mexican outbreak of Swine flu originated from a 5 year old boy living in Veracruz near a pig farm apparently owned by a large U.S. corporation. It has since spread to the United States, Canada, and Europe. But what really is the big deal?

To some people this is the next SARS-type media created hysteria that has people running for convenience store shelves buying up masks and gloves and bottles of hand sanitizer like they are going out of style. For those of us far from the Mexican border or where there is not alot of travel into and from Mexico this is simply not a huge concern. Here in the Bay Area (and California in general), however, where there are alot of Mexican immigrants (both legal and illegal) there is a much higher potential risk for infection and transmission of the disease.

The swine-flu (h1n1) is the same strain as the last major influenza virus. Avian-flu which affects Asia is h3n1. While the h1n1 virus is not breaking any records, it has been notable in that the deaths in Mexico have not been typical flu-related deaths of the elderly and the very young. It has also affected those in their 20s and 30s in the prime of their immune health. To date, the virus in the US and Canada has been mild and, well..., flu-like.

It may be difficult to understand the level of uneasiness that has spread across Mexico and the southern US. As one blogger put it: "You have a better chance of getting run over by a car than catching Pig Flu." But in the Bay Area, it should probably read "You have just as good of a chance of getting run over by a car as catching Pig Flu" but that's only because there are so many people who get hit by cars here. In Mexico schools and places of public gathering are closed. Masks abound. In California, there are multiple confirmed cases of h1n1. Just today a high school in San Jose announced it would be closed for a full week because a student had a confirmed case of swine-flu. A school in Sacramento announced similar measures earlier in the week. A woman from my wife's office went to her doctor because she thought she might have the virus. A plane arriving in Baltimore from Mexico was quarantined when the pilots reported that two passengers were ill (turned out they had had too much to drink). There is a general sense of unease with this strain of the flu.

Like I said before, there are a lot of Mexican immigrants in the United States, there is also alot of travel to Mexico and the border regions. The flu is a virus that does not manifest itself immediately and is easily transmitted from person to person. This is not to say this is going to be a huge pandemic that is going to wipe half the population from the face of the Earth, but this is not as minor a problem as was SARS, West-nile, or the avian-flu. This is spreading rapidly throughout the United States, on top of the already existing strains of the flu.

According to "patient-zero" the best cure is ice cream. However, the best course of action would seem to simply be washing your hands on a regular basis. So for those of us far from the outbreak, yes, this is probably more unfounded hysteria, but here in California the outbreak is real and it's extent remains to be seen.